Understanding football statistics
Educational articles on what the numbers tell you, and what they don’t.
How Poisson Predictions Work in Football
A plain-English look at how a Poisson distribution turns average goals into win, draw and loss probabilities, and where the model falls short.
Reading Team Form Without Overreacting
What football form really measures, why recent matches deserve more weight, and how to choose between 5 matches, 10 matches or a full season.
Result or Exact Score: What Is Realistic?
Why calling the right outcome (win, draw, loss) is far more achievable than the exact score, and why the most likely score is still unlikely.
Home Advantage: What It Is and How It Is Measured
Crowds, travel and familiarity all shape home advantage. Learn why it varies by league and era, and why a fixed bonus is a poor way to model it.
Head-to-Head Records: Useful, but Limited
Past meetings between two teams look meaningful, yet small samples and changing squads limit them. See why Predicta blends them with recent form.
Low Scores and Draws: The Dixon-Coles Fix
Why a simple Poisson model misjudges 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1, and how the Dixon-Coles correction improves the estimate of draws.
What Does "45% Chance of Winning" Really Mean?
A guide to reading probabilities honestly: why a 30% event happens often, why "the model was wrong" is usually a misreading, and how to weigh three.
Small Samples: Why a Few Matches Can Mislead
Three matches rarely tell the truth about a team. Learn how regression to the mean works, and why early-season estimates need extra care.
Reading a League Table Beyond the Points
Points, goal difference, goals for and against: what a league table shows, what it hides, and why position is not the same as real strength.
How to Judge a Football Model Honestly
Right result, exact score and the need for large samples: a fair way to evaluate a football model, and why Predicta checks itself against real scores.
Where Football Match Data Comes From
Fixtures, results and standings come from a data provider. Learn about delays, corrections, postponed matches and why data quality caps a model.
Predicta Is an Analysis Tool, Not Betting Advice
Predicta offers statistical estimates for learning and entertainment. They are not betting tips or financial advice. A calm note on responsible play.